Interest rates

The inflation rate, which had been on a decline from its COVID-induced peak in mid-2022, has now reversed course, steadily increasing from 2.3% in early 2025 to its current rate of 4.2%.

FOMC rate cuts ��� three in 2025 ��� that were key to dialing back mortgage rates are now frozen in place as economists keep a watchful eye on rising inflation.

On June 17, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair a unanimous decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4%, noting, ���Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.���

In anticipating the FOMC���s June decision, Jeff Taylor, a board member for the Mortgage Bankers Association and founder of Mphasis Digital Risk, told in late May that homeowners and buyers should expect mortgage rates to remain in the mid-to-upper 6% range throughout 2026, with potential for rates to move into the 7% range if the Iran conflict is protracted. ���This conflict has caused inflation, which causes investors to sell mortgage bonds, which pushes rates higher,��� he said.

Shandor Whitcher, an economist with Moody’s Analytics, concurred with Taylor���s outlook during an on June 17. ���In terms of treasuries, we expect the 10-year to remain elevated due to fiscal policy and the overall inflationary environment. At most, we may see modest declines of a few basis points in the 30-year fixed rate mortgages, but overall rates will remain above 6% for the foreseeable future and are more or less where they are going to be through the end of the decade.���

Global economic concerns

Even as real estate professionals keep their eye on what is happening in Washington, the global economy is also an important consideration, as international conflicts have a trickle-down effect on the U.S. economy and hence the real estate market as well.

The World Economic Forum���s noted that the U.S. continues to trail global growth, with World Output reaching 3.4% in 2025, while the U.S. reported 2.1% GDP growth. The U.S. is anticipated to trail again in 2026 and 2027 at 2.3% and 2.1% respectively, with global growth projected at 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. came to similar conclusions in its , projecting modest growth of 2.1% to 2.3%, softened by higher energy prices and geopolitical developments. On the upside, steady labor markets and tech investment are expected to keep the overall economy on an even keel.

Beyond the obvious economic drivers, world economists are now focused on more concerning developments ��� headlined under the unexpected consequences category ���  and that is the long-term effect on world food production as well as the inflationary consequences of higher food prices triggered by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

In its May 28 article, , Chief Economist Maximo Torero of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) noted that the blockade has severely disrupted global fertilizer supply chains just as planting seasons advance across both hemispheres.

���As farmers face urea fertilizer price increases of 20% to 60%, on top of rising fuel, transport, and irrigation costs, the greatest risk is not immediate food shortages but rather cascading shocks that reduce future food production,��� Torero explained. ���It begins with energy-price spikes and logistics disruptions, followed by fertilizer shortages, then lower yields, with delayed transmission effects eventually leading to higher food prices and market volatility months later.���

In the World Economic Forum���s May 2026 , 94% of surveyed chief economists were anticipating higher global inflation in the coming year.

���Energy and food prices are identified as primary drivers, with supply shocks projected to have lasting effects,��� the WEF noted in the executive summary. ���While 58% of respondents do not see a global recession as imminent, there are limited expectations of increased economic resilience in the short term.���

Resilience and stability

On the positive side, economic activity in the U.S. continues at a solid pace, prompting the labor market to add 172,000 jobs in May ��� exceeding economists’ expectations.

Stability in the job market is always a good indicator for steady home sales, and as volatility eases ��� should the Iran conflict resolve ��� there is anticipation that sales could improve through the summer.

���Stronger employment momentum has helped existing home sales reach a five-month high,��� said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac���s chief economist, in a . ���Importantly, we’re seeing homebuyers look past the short-term rate fluctuations and actively enter the market, signaling renewed confidence in homeownership opportunities.���

Although the market faces plenty of headwinds and affordability continues to keep potential buyers out of the market, the housing market is considered by some to be in a normal phase, with home prices growing at a more manageable pace and supply becoming far steadier, bringing a market long considered a sellers��� market back into balance.

One sign of this balance ��� one that favors homebuyers ��� is the growing incidence of seller concessions. In addition to a greater incidence of outright price cuts, sellers are more likely to assist the buyer with closing costs or may offer financial credits instead of completing requested home repairs.

Final note

Although muted, the housing market is exhibiting signs of strength, with home prices remaining steady, foreclosures proceeding at a very modest pace, and income growth offering hope for potential purchase activity in the future.

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By Adam Mohrbacher

For most homeowners, a deed represents safety, stability, and legacy. Deed fraud turns that certainty upside down. With just a handful of fraudulent filings, criminals can trigger months���sometimes years���of financial and legal turmoil for unsuspecting owners. This crime is growing rapidly and poses a serious threat to the real estate and title industries, often leaving lasting damage in its wake. ���Deed fraud is a very real threat,��� said Rodney Anderson, EVP and National Agency Manager at 做厙勛圖. ���It���s about someone���s home, their family���s legacy, and sometimes their entire life���s savings. That���s why the legislation recently passed by the Texas Legislature���shaped with critical input from organizations like the Texas Land Title Association (TLTA)���is so important.���

Anderson is referring in part to Senate Bill 16 (SB 16), which significantly strengthens prosecutors��� ability to pursue deed fraud cases. SB 16 is a cornerstone of a broader legislative package designed to attack deed fraud from multiple angles. Led by State Senator Royce West, the effort positions Texas as a national leader in confronting this urgent and complex issue. ���Together, these bills create the strongest state-level protections against deed fraud and title theft anywhere in the country,��� Senator West said upon their signing.

An Easy Crime with Devastating Consequences

Legislative action was necessary because deed fraud is not only destructive. It is also often disturbingly easy to commit. One scheme fraudsters use involves falsified documents transferring ownership into their name or an entity they control. They frequently target raw land, vacant properties, and deceased or elderly property owners. Once the fraudulent conveyance is recorded, they ���sell��� the property, disappearing long before the real owner realizes the damage that has been done.

This scheme and others like it succeed by exploiting weaknesses in document notarization and recording processes, as well as challenges within the legal system. While Texas law already required notaries to verify signatures, inconsistent compliance and limited accountability left openings for fraud and abuse. County clerks, meanwhile, are tasked with processing documents efficiently, not investigating their authenticity. In many cases, victims don���t discover fraud until they try to legitimately sell or refinance their property. And even then, the ordeal is far from over. ���The cleanup process can be brutal,��� Anderson explained. ���Proving a deed is fraudulent usually requires formal legal action, and that process is expensive and time-consuming.���

Historically, prosecutors have been hesitant to pursue these cases criminally, not due to lack of concern, but like most states, Texas lacked statutes tailored specifically to deed fraud. Prosecutors were forced to rely on general theft statutes, attempting to fit complex title crimes into legal arguments that simply weren���t designed for this kind of crime.

A Comprehensive Legislative Response

The Texas Legislature addressed these gaps with a four-bill package that reforms the system holistically. The measures strengthen prevention, improve detection, empower victims, and equip prosecutors with felony statutes that reflect deed fraud���s complex reality.

Key provisions include:

• Senate Bill 16

Creates two new criminal offenses specifically addressing real property theft and real property fraud, giving prosecutors statutes that align with how deed fraud schemes operate. ���These laws send a clear message that Texas is serious about detecting, prosecuting, and deterring deed fraud,��� said Anderson. ���They won���t stop every bad actor, but they make fraud harder to commit, easier to detect, and faster to unwind without overburdening legitimate transactions.���

• Senate Bill 647

Requires county clerks to notify the grantor, grantee, and most recent property owner if a lien appears fraudulent. It also allows clerks to request supporting documentation, seek district attorney assistance, and refuse filing if certain documentation is not provided.

• Senate Bill 693

Targets notary reform by criminalizing notarization without a signer���s presence and establishing continuing education requirements through the Secretary of State. The goal is to raise professional standards and accountability among notaries.

• Senate Bill 1734

Allows property owners who believe a recorded conveyance is fraudulent to file an owner���s affidavit. If no controverting affidavit is filed, the owner may petition for district court for an expedited review.

The Power of Collaboration

This legislative success underscores the power of collaboration. It was made possible by lawmakers, regulators, law enforcement, county officials, and industry leaders working toward a shared goal. Senator West led the charge, with key contributions from State Representative Rafael Anchia in the Texas House. Coordination with the County Clerk���s Association, the Dallas District Attorney���s office, and John Warren, the Dallas County Clerk, was critical along with input from the Texas Land Title Association. ���TLTA���s advocacy on this issue demonstrated exactly why all Texas title agents should be a member of the association,��� said Anderson, a former legislator, past TLTA president and current committee chair. ���TLTA Vice President of Government Relations and Counsel, Aaron Day, led the advocacy efforts with substantial input from both the Regulatory and Legislative Committees, and with approval from the TLTA Board of Directors.���

A Model for the Nation

The Texas deed fraud package represents a meaningful victory for property owners and the real estate industry alike. It strengthens notary standards, supports county clerks, empowers victims, and gives prosecutors the tools they need to pursue justice. Just as importantly, it offers a roadmap that other states can follow. ���This legislation should be used as a model throughout the country,��� Anderson said. ���Land title associations can partner with lawmakers, prosecutors, and public officials to reduce deed fraud. No law is perfect, but if collaboration leads to legislation that protects families���or helps owners reclaim property faster���then it���s absolutely worth the effort.���

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Congress is entertaining several proposals this year to modify current capital gains tax regulations on the sale of homes, and the real estate industry is championing the proposals, hoping more generous exemptions will encourage long-term owners to put their homes on the market.

But would such a change in the law be enough to move the needle? To explore that question, we���ll consider the current capital gains structure, and the proposals under consideration.

How current capital gains are assessed

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 set the current exemption levels for the sale of a primary residence, which allows a sole owner to exclude up to $250,000 in capital gains and a married couple filing jointly to exclude up to $500,000 from their tax liability.

These gains can be reduced by showing proof of capital upgrades, which include new additions, garages or porches; new roof, siding, driveway or deck; energy efficient upgrades such as insulation, solar or siding; and replacing major systems such as furnace, central air, electrical or plumbing systems.

What was not included in the original legislation was any consideration for inflation. Realtor.com estimates that in the nearly 30 years since the law was passed,

Proposed legislation

There have been three bills introduced in 2025 to address the outdated capital gains tax threshold:

The More Homes on the Market Act of 2025 (H.R.1340)

Introduced in February, the bill would increase the exclusion for capital gains for sole owners from $250,000 to $500,000 and for couples from $500,000 to $1,000,000. The bill also includes a provision that would adjust these numbers over time for inflation. This bipartisan bill may have the best chance of passing, and proponents believe it could have an impact not only on the current availability of homes for sale but also ensure future supply.

Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act of 2025 (S. 798)

Also introduced in February, the bill would index capital gains to inflation, and while the bill is broad in its reach, it does include the sale of property and so would provide some relief to home sellers. This bill is complicated, however, because it impacts such a wide swath of capital gains taxes and is likely to lag in Congress, promising no quick fix for the housing market.

No Tax on Home Sales Act

Introduced in August, this bill would eliminate capital gains entirely on the sale of all primary residences. The downside is that it would cost the federal government billions in lost revenue, which would likely need to be offset by higher taxes elsewhere.

Who benefits?

Assessing the market impact of these proposals also requires asking how widely the effects would be felt among homeowners, and whether the number is large enough to meaningfully shift housing supply. To understand who would benefit from any adjustment to the capital gains tax, it���s important to look at the sectors of homeowners who have accrued capital gains that exceed the current thresholds.

It is estimated that about 25% of current homeowners ��� sole and couple ownership ��� have realized a $250,000+ gain since purchasing their home. According to the National Association of Realtors, approximately 38% of homeowners are single owners, so only that percentage of current homeowners would be subject to the $250,000 threshold. Approximately 8% have realized a gain exceeding $500,000.

Given the benefit accrued to married couples, this calculates out to approximately 10% of current homeowners who would actually have a capital gains burden if selling their home under the current regime.

A recent estimate prepared by seemed to concur with these numbers, estimating that only 10.3% of homeowners are above the current exception. The report indicated that those who would benefit would be wealthier, higher-income and older on average, noting that the average net worth of those homeowners is $5.7 million, their average income is $431,000, and the average age is 64.

came to a similar conclusion, noting that the median value of homes that have gained $500,000 is approximately $1.3 million, while the median home value for those homes that have gained $250,000 is $720,000, indicating that those most impacted by the current rates are also among the wealthiest homeowners.

Homeowners on the East and West Coasts, where home values have climbed most rapidly over the past several decades, are also more likely to benefit.

California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Utah, Idaho and Colorado are the states with the highest share of homes above capital gains thresholds. States in the heartland report negligible numbers exceeding the gains threshold, including Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska, Louisiana, West Virginia, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Iowa, North Dakota and Mississippi.

How a higher threshold (or no threshold) benefits the real estate market

While there appears to be agreement that the current thresholds are outdated, and likely to penalize long-time elderly homeowners, particularly those who have been widowed, there is less of an understanding of how effective the legislation will be at releasing more homes into the market ��� a major concern for the real estate industry.

Although the current inventory of homes for sale is in the 4.6-month range, that inventory could be gobbled up very quickly if the Federal Reserve continues to dial back rates and homebuyers who have sat on the sidelines head back into the market in greater numbers.

From a long-term perspective, raising the threshold seems imperative, as more homeowners will cross that threshold in the coming years if the adjustment is not made, incentivizing a larger number of long-term owners to stay put.

that found:

• By 2030, 56% of homeowners (47 million) are projected to exceed the $250K threshold��� and nearly 23% (20 million) could surpass $500K.
• By 2035, nearly 70% (59 million) could surpass $250K and 38% exceed $500K cap.
• Eight states could have more than 40% of owners above the $500K cap by 2030; 20 states by 2035.

However, if the change reaches only 10% of current homeowners, most in higher-income tiers, its effect may be modest. Raising the exclusion might release some upper-tier homes, but it may not resolve the fundamental shortage of affordable housing for lower- and middle-income consumers.

Potential homebuyers may still be on the sidelines in 2026 if the shortage of affordable housing is not addressed in a more meaningful way ��� with the industry working alongside national, state, and local governments, as well as community and charitable organizations.

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It is difficult to admit it, but we are all getting older ��� day by day. For many of us, and for our family members, we must actively think about how we may want to distribute our assets when we pass away. Our assets may include personal property, financial accounts, investments such as stocks and bonds, and real property ��� just to name a few. For this article we will concentrate our discussion on real property.

Unless there is a legal tool established to have an asset avoid probate, typically when a person holds title to real property and passes away, their interest may be addressed through a probate of that person���s estate. From formal, informal, summary administration, or ancillary administration of a person���s estate, a review of the written wishes of the decedent���s distribution of assets or through the intestate succession laws of the state will identify the heirs and beneficiaries and how to correctly distribute any real property.

As an example, in Florida, under Chapter 5 of The Uniform Title Standards, Estates of Decedents, Standard 5.1 discusses an intestate decedent and homestead property.  Here is one comment from that standard:

Section 732.101(2), Fla. Stat. provides that the decedent���s death is the event that

vests the heirs��� right to the decedent���s intestate property. However, for title to be

marketable, Florida probate or similar judicial proceedings are necessary to

establish the identity of the heirs. In addition, in order to preserve a permanent

record of the probate proceedings for future marketability purposes, it is strongly

recommended that certified copies of the pertinent excerpts be recorded in the

official records of the county where the real property is located. ���

Under 禮禮 733.607(1) and 733.608, Fla. Stat., the decedent���s real property, except

protected homestead, is subject to the possession and control of the personal

representative for such purposes as the payment of devises, estate and inheritance

taxes, claims, charges, and expenses of the administration and obligations of the

decedent���s estate.

Protected homestead does not become an asset within the possession and control of the personal representative. Spitzer v. Branning, 135 Fla. 49, 184 So. 770 (Fla.

1938); Public Health Trust of Dade County v. Lopez, 531 So. 2d 946 (Fla. 1988).

Therefore, during the administration of the estate, a conveyance from the heirs

would not create a marketable title unless: (1) a final order determining the

property to be protected homestead had been entered, or (2) the personal

representative relinquishes control, or potential control over the asset by quitclaim

deed, certificate of distribution or other similar instrument, and estate taxes cleared.

So, in Florida, beyond just being the decedent���s asset, there is also an evaluation of whether the real property was their homestead property. Such a determination matters and may necessitate different steps for the distribution of the real property.

For a person that has a will (i.e. testate) which is duly admitted to probate and does not specifically identify the property as one to be devised, then the distribution of the real property most likely will have to be addressed through the probate court to determine the rightful heirs or beneficiaries of that property.

It is also worth mentioning that depending on your state, there may be other statutory mechanisms to assist with the distribution of real property without probate proceedings, when done properly, such as an Affidavit of Heirship, Life Estate / Beneficiary deed, Trusts, Survivorship deed, and others.

From a claim���s perspective, the team typically addresses heir and beneficiary issues that involve someone who was not identified in the probate proceedings, the person was not named in the nonjudicial evidence of an Affidavit of Heirship, or the person was named but a conveyance deed was not obtained and recorded.

To avoid missing an heir or beneficiary, it is important to review an obituary (if available), ask questions about the decedent���s family, and if heirs or beneficiaries are identified, obtain a deed from each person. To expand on the last-mentioned situation, we occasionally see that a decedent���s heir or beneficiary is also deceased. However, you cannot ignore their particular interest as their interest goes to this person���s heirs and beneficiaries and deeds still need to be obtained to resolve their interest.

Here are a few scenarios involving a decedent���s property:

Scenario #1

Q: A family member of an intestate decedent who passed away a year ago enters your office and says that he has a Power of Attorney to manage and sell the property. Will the Power of Attorney work in this situation?

A: No.  A power of attorney automatically terminates upon the death of the principal. Thus, a probate must be open to determinate the heirs and the distribution of the asset.  

Scenario #2

Q: The daughter of an intestate decedent visits your office. She states she is the only child that her single father acknowledged at the time of his passing. However, her two brothers have been ���disowned by the family��� and there is no need to probate her father���s estate. Is the daughter able to convey full fee simple title without her brothers?

A: No. To address any interest in the asset a probate proceeding should be open in that state or non-judicial evidence of heirship provided, if available in your state. In either case, it would be necessary to have all decedent���s heirs execute a conveyance deed.

Scenario #3

Q: The nonresident decedent owns real property in Florida. A probate of the decedent���s estate was handled in Nevada.  A son comes to your office with the Nevada probate proceedings and states that he can sell the property. Can you proceed with only a Nevada probate?   

A: No.  Nevada does not have jurisdiction over the Florida property. A probate should be filed in Florida to address the distribution of the asset and a conveyance deed obtained from the heir(s).

Conclusion

This article provides a broad, high-level discussion of a limited area of estate and probate as it applies to real property. As you can see, the complexities of estate administration for each state must be analyzed thoroughly and accurately to ensure that the proper parties are conveying title and to prevent ownership challenges. Remember to check your state resources, speak with your underwriter, or discuss with your legal counsel to properly identify and resolve any interest being held by an heir or beneficiary.

Resources:

Justia. 2024 Colorado Revised Statutes, Title 15 ��� Probate, Trusts, and Fiduciaries, Colorado Probate Code, Article 11 ��� Intestate Succession and Wills – .

Justia. 2023 North Carolina General Statutes, Chapter 28A ��� Administration of Decedents��� Estates; Chapter 28B ��� Estates of Absentees in Military Service; Chapter 28C ��� Estates of Missing Persons; Chapter 29 ��� Intestate Succession; Chapter 30 ��� Surviving Spouses; Chapter 31 – Wills  – .

Justia. 2024 Texas Statutes, Estates Code, Title 2 ��� Estates of Decedents; Durable Powers of Attorney, Subtitle E ��� Intestate Succession, Chapter 203 ��� Nonjudicial Evidence of Heirship – .

Missouri Revisor of Statutes, Title XXXI Trusts and Estates of Decedents and Persons Under Disability, Chapter 461 Nonprobate Transfers Law – .

The Uniform Title Standards, A Publication of the Florida Bar Real Property, Probate & Trust Law Section ��� Chapter 5 – Estates of Decedents (September 2010) – .

This blog contains general information only, not intended to be relied upon as, nor a substitute for, specific professional advice. We accept no responsibility for loss occasioned to any purpose acting on or refraining from action as a result of any material on this blog.

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