Congress is entertaining several proposals this year to modify current capital gains tax regulations on the sale of homes, and the real estate industry is championing the proposals, hoping more generous exemptions will encourage long-term owners to put their homes on the market.

But would such a change in the law be enough to move the needle? To explore that question, we���ll consider the current capital gains structure, and the proposals under consideration.

How current capital gains are assessed

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 set the current exemption levels for the sale of a primary residence, which allows a sole owner to exclude up to $250,000 in capital gains and a married couple filing jointly to exclude up to $500,000 from their tax liability.

These gains can be reduced by showing proof of capital upgrades, which include new additions, garages or porches; new roof, siding, driveway or deck; energy efficient upgrades such as insulation, solar or siding; and replacing major systems such as furnace, central air, electrical or plumbing systems.

What was not included in the original legislation was any consideration for inflation. Realtor.com estimates that in the nearly 30 years since the law was passed,

Proposed legislation

There have been three bills introduced in 2025 to address the outdated capital gains tax threshold:

The More Homes on the Market Act of 2025 (H.R.1340)

Introduced in February, the bill would increase the exclusion for capital gains for sole owners from $250,000 to $500,000 and for couples from $500,000 to $1,000,000. The bill also includes a provision that would adjust these numbers over time for inflation. This bipartisan bill may have the best chance of passing, and proponents believe it could have an impact not only on the current availability of homes for sale but also ensure future supply.

Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act of 2025 (S. 798)

Also introduced in February, the bill would index capital gains to inflation, and while the bill is broad in its reach, it does include the sale of property and so would provide some relief to home sellers. This bill is complicated, however, because it impacts such a wide swath of capital gains taxes and is likely to lag in Congress, promising no quick fix for the housing market.

No Tax on Home Sales Act

Introduced in August, this bill would eliminate capital gains entirely on the sale of all primary residences. The downside is that it would cost the federal government billions in lost revenue, which would likely need to be offset by higher taxes elsewhere.

Who benefits?

Assessing the market impact of these proposals also requires asking how widely the effects would be felt among homeowners, and whether the number is large enough to meaningfully shift housing supply. To understand who would benefit from any adjustment to the capital gains tax, it���s important to look at the sectors of homeowners who have accrued capital gains that exceed the current thresholds.

It is estimated that about 25% of current homeowners ��� sole and couple ownership ��� have realized a $250,000+ gain since purchasing their home. According to the National Association of Realtors, approximately 38% of homeowners are single owners, so only that percentage of current homeowners would be subject to the $250,000 threshold. Approximately 8% have realized a gain exceeding $500,000.

Given the benefit accrued to married couples, this calculates out to approximately 10% of current homeowners who would actually have a capital gains burden if selling their home under the current regime.

A recent estimate prepared by seemed to concur with these numbers, estimating that only 10.3% of homeowners are above the current exception. The report indicated that those who would benefit would be wealthier, higher-income and older on average, noting that the average net worth of those homeowners is $5.7 million, their average income is $431,000, and the average age is 64.

came to a similar conclusion, noting that the median value of homes that have gained $500,000 is approximately $1.3 million, while the median home value for those homes that have gained $250,000 is $720,000, indicating that those most impacted by the current rates are also among the wealthiest homeowners.

Homeowners on the East and West Coasts, where home values have climbed most rapidly over the past several decades, are also more likely to benefit.

California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Utah, Idaho and Colorado are the states with the highest share of homes above capital gains thresholds. States in the heartland report negligible numbers exceeding the gains threshold, including Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska, Louisiana, West Virginia, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Iowa, North Dakota and Mississippi.

How a higher threshold (or no threshold) benefits the real estate market

While there appears to be agreement that the current thresholds are outdated, and likely to penalize long-time elderly homeowners, particularly those who have been widowed, there is less of an understanding of how effective the legislation will be at releasing more homes into the market ��� a major concern for the real estate industry.

Although the current inventory of homes for sale is in the 4.6-month range, that inventory could be gobbled up very quickly if the Federal Reserve continues to dial back rates and homebuyers who have sat on the sidelines head back into the market in greater numbers.

From a long-term perspective, raising the threshold seems imperative, as more homeowners will cross that threshold in the coming years if the adjustment is not made, incentivizing a larger number of long-term owners to stay put.

that found:

• By 2030, 56% of homeowners (47 million) are projected to exceed the $250K threshold��� and nearly 23% (20 million) could surpass $500K.
• By 2035, nearly 70% (59 million) could surpass $250K and 38% exceed $500K cap.
• Eight states could have more than 40% of owners above the $500K cap by 2030; 20 states by 2035.

However, if the change reaches only 10% of current homeowners, most in higher-income tiers, its effect may be modest. Raising the exclusion might release some upper-tier homes, but it may not resolve the fundamental shortage of affordable housing for lower- and middle-income consumers.

Potential homebuyers may still be on the sidelines in 2026 if the shortage of affordable housing is not addressed in a more meaningful way ��� with the industry working alongside national, state, and local governments, as well as community and charitable organizations.

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How to think about a strategic marketing framework

Before you begin, it���s important to note what a strategic marketing framework is and what it is not. First, this framework should be:

• Mission-driven:��It should include the core tenets of your brand promise and identity.
• Targeted and relevant:��The framework needs to resonate with your target audience by offering clear value.
• Strategic and succinct:��Your framework must align with your agency���s needs and be short enough to fit various communication channels.
• Emotional and actionable:��Remember, people respond powerfully to emotional appeals and clear next steps.
• Cohesive and comprehensive:��Your framework must tie together seamlessly and speak to the entirety of your organization���s high-level priorities.

On the other hand, it should not be:

• Disjointed or random:��Each element of your framework must feel intentional and complementary.
• Granular and tactical:��Avoid discussing specific marketing campaigns or granular organizational details.
• Exclusively sales-focused:��Don���t make your framework solely about getting customers to buy from you. Instead, make it squarely about how you can solve their problems.
• Vague and unfocused:��Just because a strategic messaging framework is intended to capture high-level aspects of your agency does not mean it should be vague.

Start building based off your SWOT

Now let���s explore how to build a messaging framework based on your SWOT. First, create language that emphasizes your agency���s strengths. An example might be a message about how you ���bring decades of collective experience to each closing.���

Then, build a message that reframes SWOT weaknesses as areas primed for growth or future advantage. For instance, if your tech stack is aging but you plan to update it, talk about how you are ���quickly implementing more innovative solutions to better address stakeholder needs.���

Next, address your SWOT���s opportunities. The messages should align and build off your identified strengths. They should also convey how your company is positioned for long-term success. Be as specific as you can, include data if possible and always indicate why customers should care. As an example, if you have expansion plans on the horizon, you could explain how this ���reflects the depth of your resources and the unparalleled competency of your team.���

Lastly, message your SWOT���s threats. These must also be reframed by putting the focus on how you will address them. The ebb and flow of the real estate market offers a good example of how to do this. For instance, you could articulate how ���your financial strength and operational efficiency enable you to ride out periodic downturns and continue delivering for clients.���

Implement your framework

Once you have fleshed out messaging, it is time to integrate your framework into your agency���s communications. Let���s look at a few ways for doing this:

1. Incorporate your framework into your marketing materials,��including your website, social media and press releases.
2. Create simple talking points��so your team can easily memorize key messages and amplify your agency���s efforts where appropriate.
3. Incorporate your messages into your brand guidelines��to ensure consistency across all materials, including those created by third parties.
4. Leverage your framework for thought leadership��by using them as a springboard to talk about your values and long-term vision. ��

Measure, refine, rinse and repeat

After you have your key messaging framework based around your SWOT, it can be tempting to sit back and put your feet up. Don���t! The whole point of this exercise is to build greater connections with your customers. To know if you���ve achieved this, you must measure whether people are responding to your messages and connecting with your brand.

Track meaningful changes in core metrics once you begin using your messages in communications, and consider surveying your customer base to understand how they perceive you. If you don���t get the answers you want, revisit your strategic messaging framework and refine. And if you still don���t get the responses you desire, refine again.

Tell a story that connects and converts

In a competitive field like title insurance, it���s important to differentiate yourself. Building a strategic messaging framework based on your SWOT analysis is one way to do this. By thinking about your strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats, you can create a compelling story that will make your customers take note and engage more fully with your brand. That���s because they will have come to better understand who you and how you can help them achieve their goals.

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